Applying Systems Thinking When Deciding Which of the Demonstrated Solutions to Implement Now
The Climate Crisis is here. Carbon dioxide emitted today will contribute to the greenhouse effect for about a thousand years. The effect of greenhouse gasses is cumulative, not transient. The sooner we reduce emissions/the more we reduce emissions, the more we reduce this cumulative effect.
While we need to make sure that all of the possible solutions are considered, financial and material resources are limited and it is important to pick the most effective solutions out of the pile of solutions that have been demonstrated. We want to implement the low-hanging fruit first and implement the technologies with the quickest, biggest bang for the buck and the least uncertainty.
Note that the low-hanging fruit is not static. After today’s low-hanging fruit is picked, other demonstrated technologies will become the low-hanging fruit. Since only demonstrated technologies are considered when doing Tier 2 bullshit detection, the net present value of a technology before construction begins can be estimated from data. Similarly, the global temperature change over time, using data on the GHG impact of the technology over its life cycle, can be estimated.
In systems thinking, the best solutions are the ones with the biggest temperature benefit per dollar of net present value. Solutions that can be delivered profitably are the lowest hanging fruit even if their impact per dollar is less than other solutions because they can unlock financial and material resources.
In systems thinking, an imaginary envelope is drawn that includes all the elements that are impacted by the technology. The interconnections between climate solutions and causes of climate change are complicated, and the thorny part of tier 2 due diligence is getting the envelope right. This complication exists in the sphere of technology as well as nature. For example, is there potential for the solution to integrate with the variable supply/pricing of renewable energy sources? If corn stover is used to create a biobased plastic that is intended to be more climate friendly than traditional plastic, what happens when that corn stover becomes unavailable for regenerating the soil it was grown in?
Many new technologies compete with existing technology, and the complexity of that competition is a systems consideration. For example, if a new technology wants to supplant an existing chemical manufacturing technology in the US, it is up against billions of dollars of existing infrastructure and a complicated system of existing interdependent processes. Tier 2 due diligence should include an outline of these barriers so that the potential for commercial success can be properly evaluated.